A new report
has warned there's an existential risk to humanity from the climate crisis
within the coming decades, and a "high likelihood of human civilization
coming to an end" over the next three decades unless urgent action is
taken.
The report,
published by Australian thinktank the Breakthrough National Centre for Climate
Restoration, outlines an apocalyptic scenario that could see conditions
"beyond the threshold of human survivability" across much of our
planet by 2050. Their analysis calculates the existential climate-related
security risk to Earth through a scenario set 30 years into the future.
The report
refuses to downplay its bleak assessment of what could happen, warning of
"an existential risk to civilization [..] posing permanent large negative
consequences to humanity that may never be undone, either annihilating
intelligent life or permanently and drastically curtailing its potential."
The authors
argue we are now in a unique situation with no precise historical equivalent,
with temperatures unlike anything humanity has ever experienced, and a
population of nearly 8 billion people. This requires us to work towards
avoiding catastrophic possibilitiesrather than looking at probabilities, as
learning from mistakes is not an option when it comes to existential risks.
With that in
mind, they propose a plausible and terrifying "2050 scenario" whereby
humanity could face irreversible collapse in just three decades. So, here goes:
2020-2030
Governments
fail to act on the evidence that the Paris Agreement isn't enough to keep
Earth's temperature from rising, and will "lock in at least 3°C of
warming". As projected by previous studies, carbon dioxide levels have
reached 437 parts per million, which hasn't been seen in the last 20 million
years. The planet warms by 1.6°C (2.8°F).
2030-2050
Emissions
peak in 2030 and are reduced. However, carbon cycle feedbacks and the continued
use of fossil fuels see temperatures rise by 3°C (5.4°F) by 2050.
2050
By 2050
there's a scientific consensus that we reached the tipping point for ice sheets
in Greenland and the West Antarctic well before 2°C (3.6°F) of warming, and for
widespread permafrost at 2.5°C (4.5°F). A "Hothouse Earth" scenario
plays out that sees Earth's temperatures doomed to rise by a further 1°C
(1.8°F) even if we stopped emissions immediately.
At this
point the human impact is off the scale. Fifty-five percent of the global
population are subject to more than 20 days a year of lethal heat conditions
beyond that which humans can survive. North America suffers extreme weather
events including wildfires, drought, and heatwaves. Monsoons in China fail, the
great rivers of Asia virtually dry up, and rainfall in central America falls by
half.
Deadly heat
conditions across West Africa persist for over 100 days a year, and poorer
countries are unable to provide enough artificially-cooled environments for
their populations to be viable. Food production is severely affected, and
inadequate to feed the global population. More than a billion people are
displaced.
The knock-on
consequences affect national security, as the scale of the challenges involved,
such as pandemic disease outbreaks, are overwhelming. Armed conflicts over
resources may become a reality, and have the potential to escalate into nuclear
war.
In the worst
case scenario, a scale of destruction the authors say is beyond their capacity
to model, there is a "high likelihood of human civilization coming to an
end".
With these
horrific possibilities in mind for our near future, the authors recommend
nations "urgently examine the role that the national security sector can
play in providing leadership and capacity for a near-term, society-wide,
emergency mobilization of labor and resources, of a scale unprecedented in
peacetime, to build a zero-emissions industrial system and draw down carbon to
protect human civilization."
It is
doable. The most recent IPCC report lays out a future if we limit global
heating to 1.5°C instead of the Paris Agreement's 2°C. There are ways we can
prevent this future, we just need to act now.
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